Vacation Timeshare Sales

Case Study

Market Situation

Our client, a major company in the vacation exchange/timeshare business needed help maximizing the occupancy of its inventory. The company has approximately 3 million members who use this service to expand their vacation investment. They do this by depositing and requesting vacation weeks at 3,700 resorts around the globe.

Objective
  • Maximize the occupancy of its vacation exchange/ timeshare inventory.
Strategy

The way timeshare exchanges are made is through a point system that in part relies on supply, demand, and utilization. The success of our client hinges on the ability to (accurately) predict demand, supply and utilization for each of its resorts every week, forecasting up to two years into the future.

Solution

The statistical analysis applied to successfully predict to this level of detail is highly sophisticated. The technique uses a specialized set of statistical methods geared towards predicting time series data – namely ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average models), spectral analysis, and recurrent neural networks. This also requires the creation of a highly specialized analytical data mart (database).

With the adoption of these analytical processes the company increased its inventory occupancy from 75% to just over 90%. This easily translated into enhanced levels of service for its customers and significantly increased company revenues.